The UK's Boiler Phase-Out: What's Next for Home Heating?

The UK Government previously aimed for 2035 as the cut-off year to phase out gas boiler installations, outlined clearly by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the 2021 Heat and Buildings Strategy. This date represented a critical step toward achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

However, this timeline has become uncertain. The previous administration softened commitments, and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband pledged prior to taking office not to pursue a rigid 2035 ban on boiler installations.

Although the forthcoming Future Homes Standard will stop fossil-fuel boilers from being installed in new homes within a few years, extending this measure to existing homes remains undecided. The Government’s upcoming Warm Homes Plan is expected to address these uncertainties, but it's prudent now to explore alternatives to the original 2035 timeline.

The Climate Change Committee recommended 2035 to align boiler replacements naturally with the net-zero 2050 target. Since gas boilers typically last around 15 years, a 2035 deadline would ensure most homes transitioned smoothly to low-carbon alternatives by 2050.

This date provided clarity for the plumbing and heating sector, signalling the need to invest in new technology, workforce training, and capacity for installing clean heating solutions. Importantly, the phase-out was never designed to abruptly remove functioning gas boilers—instead, it encouraged replacement at the end of each unit’s lifecycle.

If the UK moves away from a fixed 2035 deadline, three alternative strategies could effectively accelerate the shift to low-carbon heating:

The Clean Heat Market Mechanism currently requires boiler producers to install a set number of heat pumps per hundred boilers sold—initially at 6 heat pumps per 100 boilers this year. The government could clarify and increase future requirements, possibly achieving parity—100 heat pumps per 100 boilers by 2030.

However, this approach may only be effective up to a certain point, beyond which manufacturers might withdraw from the market entirely, necessitating additional measures to bridge the gap from partial to full adoption of low-carbon heating systems.

Another approach is incentivising homeowners toward heat pumps rather than imposing boiler bans. Making heat pumps economically advantageous through financial incentives could attract homeowners naturally.

Reforming environmental levies to lower electricity costs relative to gas would further boost heat pump appeal. Yet, continuing current subsidies of around £7,500 per unit would mean substantial government spending—potentially over £10 billion annually if uptake hits targeted levels by the mid-2030s. Additionally, the heating industry itself could improve affordability and customer experiences to boost adoption further.

A critical challenge for shifting to low-carbon heat is managing the gas distribution network as usage declines. By the early 2040s, fewer gas boiler users could mean rising maintenance costs and unsustainable gas prices.

A practical solution could be targeted local phase-outs, where neighbourhoods transition at different speeds. The government might implement localised deadlines, offering incentives, targeted financial support, and infrastructure investment, enabling communities to adopt low-carbon heating efficiently and economically.

Such an approach could facilitate smoother transitions, leveraging local economies of scale. However, implementing various regional deadlines may pose challenges—particularly deciding on local priorities and timings.

Though alternative methods exist, reinstating the original 2035 phase-out remains the simplest and most direct strategy. Contrary to fears, public support for a 2035 deadline is strong—research by the Behavioural Insights Team found 71% of respondents either supported or did not object to the policy.

Regardless of the strategy chosen, the UK government must clearly define its approach soon. The earlier the plumbing and heating industry—and homeowners—can prepare for life beyond gas boilers, the smoother and more successful the nationwide transition will be.